13 - 19 April 2000

Malta to join EU between 2003 and 2006, says 'The Economist'

by Franco Aloisio

Malta should make it into the European Union in the first wave of enlargement which should occur somewhere between 2003 and 2006, the influential news magazine The Economist said in this week's issue.

In an article entitled "Who will join Europe's club - and when?", The Economist said Malta, together with the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Poland and Slovenia stand a chance of becoming full members between 2003 and 2006.

Another three countries - Latvia, Lithuania and Slovakia - are likely to join in 2005 or 2006. The remaining applicant countries, Bulgaria and Romania, could join later, in 2007 or 2008. Turkey, which has not started negotiations yet with the EU, is seen to become a full member in ten years time.

The Economist suggests that with ten countries joining together, possibly by 2006, the EU would be adopting a "big bang" view of enlargement. This "big bang" approach to enlargement is still the stuff of think-tanks and unofficial conversations. The Economist said it has not been endorsed yet by the EU Commission. Nor is "big bang" expansion endorsed by any EU government. All governments have been careful not to make any promises about timing.

However, the news magazine said that the EU Commission President Romano Prodi would want to see the European club's expansion well under way before January 2005, when his term of office ends.

"But the idea is in the air, and the more governments think about it, the more they may come to see its advantages," The Economist said.

The article states that with ten countries joining together, there would be no need to erect physical and bureaucratic borders around early joiners, only to dismantle them a couple of years later when their neighbours followed. There would be a single bundle of accession treaties that governments and parliaments across the EU could all ratify together.

The Economist focused on the claims being made by various applicant countries of the Eastern Europe bloc, which are seeing the EU losing its enthusiasm for taking in new members.

In the late 1990s, the EU's governments did once talk of expanding into Central and Eastern Europe in 2002 or 2003.

"Now, as that time approaches, they seem just as happy, off the record, with the idea of starting two or three years later," said The Economist article.

However the European Commission is replying that it is proceeding as promised with its preparations, including an inter-governmental conference later this year which will revise its treaties and procedures. The Economist added that if all goes as planned, it will be ready for new members by the end of 2002. After that, candidates may join when they, too, are ready.

Talks with the more advanced candidates, including Poland and Hungary, are moving on to tricky issues where big interests are at stake. This month and next, negotiations are starting on topics that include agriculture and the free movement of labour.

So far, negotiations with Malta, which is part of the second wave of countries which started negotiations this year, have focused on the so-called "easy" chapters. Malta is expected to start discussing sensitive issues in 2001.