Issue No. 314

26 October - 1 November 2000

Investors Corner

The Market
Leading shares in London ended the week firmer, but below their peak for the session as Wall Street put in a mixed early performance, with the Nasdaq higher once again after some recent pleasant tech corporate earnings surprises. At the Friday close, the FTSE 100 index was 57.4 points higher at 6,276.3, well below its midmorning peak of 6,294.5, but above a low of 6,210.3 registered around 1pm. All the broader FTSE indices were firmer – most notably the techMARK 100, up 122.80 points to 3,450.54 as the Nasdaq index extended its recent recovery. Volume was a healthy 1.746 billion shares in 119,595 transactions, helped by some futures and options expiries-linked activity.
UK blue chips bounded higher from the start on Friday, propelled forward by the overnight surge on Wall Street and in Asia as investors moved back in at the lower levels and the market reacted positively to reassuring comments from Fed chairman Alan Greenspan on crude prices. Telecom, media and technology (TMT) issues once again were the vanguard of the FTSE 100 advance, reflecting a near eight per cent leap by the technology-laden Nasdaq composite index overnight after surprisingly strong earnings reports from Microsoft, Nokia and Sun Microsystems.
Very robust after-hours figures from internet auctioneer eBay also provided a lift, although sentiment was slightly undermined by the increasingly cautious reaction to third-quarter results from Ericsson of Sweden.
The London market also took comfort from a solid set of third-quarter preliminary UK GDP figures, which showed an increase of 0.7 per cent in the third quarter – giving a year-on-year increase of 2.9 per cent – although the growth was slightly less than expected. The FTSE 100 index raced up to its high for the day by 10.10am, helped too by factors associated with the futures and options expiries across Europe.
But, after the “double witching” expiries, UK blue chips drifted back from their highs, with a lack of any real follow through interest, and some worries over possible profit taking in New York at the restart creating some caution. Leading shares dropped below opening levels over lunchtime, with the FTSE 100 index hitting its low for the day at 12.55pm. But this wobble was soon reversed, with UK blue chips resuming their advance as the Nasdaq index was propelled higher from the start once more.
Meanwhile, WPP Group gained 36 pence to 856 pence as Schroder Salomon Smith Barney upped its rating to “outperform” from the previous “neutral” and ahead of figures on Monday. United News & Media put on 32 pence to 815 pence as brokers reacted positively to performance update – Credit Lyonnais Securities repeated “add” with an 865 pence price target.
Tech and telecom stocks dominated the list of blue chip advancers on the back of Nasdaq fresh gains. Logica topped the list of FTSE 100 gainers, adding 215 pence at 2,020 pence, also helped by news that Intec Telecom – with which it has a close business relationship – has signed a licensing agreement with Deutsche Bank’s T-Mobil. Marconi also saw good demand, up 78 pence at 938 pence helped by the benefits of its Nasdaq lifting, with Bookham Technologies rallying another 201 pence to 2,569 pence, and CMG recovering after estimate downgrades earlier in the week to add 80 at 1,130.
Freeserve, however, failed to join in the blue chip tech party, with its shares losing 6 pence to 160 pence after confirmation that it will be the stock demoted from the FTSE 100 index to make way for Lattice, which is being demerged from BG Group on Monday. Freeserve stakeholder Dixons shed 3/4 pence to 184 pence in sympathy. After a good run ahead of that demerger, BG shares shed 5 pence to 420 pence – hit by a bout of profit-taking. P&O, which will also undergo a demerger of its Cruises business on Monday, saw its deferred shares fall 18
at 550.
Other “old economy” issues fell back on profit taking, with Reckitt Benckiser down 30 pence at 890 pence, Rentokil Initial off 4-1/2 pence at 150-1/2 pence, Marks & Spencer down 5 pence at 170 pence, and recent FTSE 100 newcomer Canary Wharf off 14-1/2 pence at 525 pence.
Celltech suffered after the Department of Health told doctors not to issue polio vaccine produced by Medeva because of fears it may be contaminated by Mad Cow Disease. Celltech sold Medeva to Powderject last month – Celltech shares fell 26 pence to 1,356 pence, while second liner Powderject shares shed 25 pence at 667-1/2 pence. Other drug issues ran in to profit-taking despite good results from some of their US peers: SmithKline Beecham fell 28 pence to 870 pence, merger partner Glaxo Wellcome eased 57 pence to 1,940 pence.

Alliance Unichem
Alliance Unichem, the drug wholesaling, distribution and retail group, reported that during the first half of this year it continued to expand its retail activities both in the UK and continental Europe with a net further 60 pharmacies added to the division in the UK, 15 in Switzerland and entry into the Dutch market via the acquisition of 14 pharmacies. In addition, in the UK the group acquired the 57 shop Scholl chain of footwear and chiropody outlets, and agreement has been reached with the Swiss grocery retailer, Coop, to combine pharmacies with health and beauty ranges in a new joint venture company trading under the name Coop Vitality.
Development activity within Alliance Unichem’s
wholesale businesses has focused on rationalisation and efficiency gains. Further automation projects have been implemented across the group, and rationalisation of depots has continued, with the consolidation of its warehouse network in the Czech Republic following the creation of Alliance UniChem CZ. The implementation of the pre-wholesale joint venture with Galenica Holding has been completed, and the Group’s pre-wholesaling activities have been brought under a single pan-European management team.
Following its launch in March, developments in its e-business division have been rapid. The new management team has been assembled, combining people from inside and outside Alliance UniChem. Using expertise, software and people from Rx.com in the US, together with technical support from netdecisions, a specialist internet systems contractor, it has completed the technology development for the initial launch of its web services.
Alliance Unichem has conducted extensive consultation programmes among its pharmacy clients. These programmes, together with further market research, have helped it design the range of services to be offered through its web presence, and the overall brand presentation, which will be offered under the name pharmology.com. The group is currently developing the launch programme for pharmology.com and anticipates introducing this service to its clients, initially in the UK and in France, during the fourth quarter of this year.
In the first half of 2000, £1.4 million has been charged to profit representing the cost of developing pharmology.com, and Alliance expects to double this in the full year 2000. Pre-tax profits for the period were up nine per cent to £61.2 million.
The markets in which Alliance Unichem operates continue to grow strongly, driven by the changing demographics and the introduction of more effective medicines enabling periods of hospitalisation to be reduced. It expects these underlying long-term trends to outweigh the effects of government action to control healthcare expenditure.
Competitive pressures are a continuing feature of Alliance’s operating environment but the group remains confident in its ability to run efficient low-cost operations, while building customer loyalty through targeted marketing initiatives, will continue to deliver earnings growth. Equally, opportunities for further growth may arise from selective acquisitions.

Williams
On 7 March 2000, Williams, the industrial conglomeragte, announced its intention to create two separately quoted businesses to be owned by Williams Shareholders: Chubb, which will be a leading world-wide security services provider, and Kidde, which will be a leading global supplier of fire and safety products, systems and services. If the demerger proceeds, Kidde will issue Kidde Shares to Chubb Shareholders on the following basis: For each Chubb Share 1 Kidde Share. The proposed demerger is expected to be effective on 13 November 2000 and shares in Chubb and Kidde expected to start trading on 14 November 2000.
Chubb made further progress during the first half of the year with overall sales increasing by 12.9 per cent, at constant exchange rates, to £672.4million. This headline growth is a combination of organic growth and acquisitions which have strengthened Chubb’s geographic position and broadened its service capability.
The Tesa Hardware business included in Chubb is conditionally held for disposal, subject to US regulatory approval, and conclusion of these arrangements is expected within the next 12 months following adjustments to the supply arrangements for Tesa Entry Systems. Chubb has recorded good progress in the first half with the business expanding organically, geographically and by adding more services to its offering. Similar progress is expected in the second half.
A number of investments made in the first half which are expected to reflect in improving profitability in the medium term. Following the successful completion of the demerger process, management is committed to review aggressively the central costs and to establish a structure consistent with Chubb as an independent public company. Overall, Chubb is well positioned to continue its expansion and to consolidate its position as a leader in the highly attractive security services industry.
For Kidde, sales in the first half of 2000 were £369.2 million. Sales growth was 14.1 per cent, at constant exchange rates, of which approximately six per cent arose from acquisitions. Organic sales growth was assisted by the recovery of carbon monoxide detector sales in the USA following the depressed level of sales in the first half of 1999. Significant progress has been made in key areas and prospects for the second half are good. Growth rates will be influenced by the performance of the Residential and Commercial business in the peak last quarter and by expenditure levels in the petrochemical market for fire fighting products.
At this stage organic turnover growth levels are expected to be similar to those achieved in the first half.

 

  © Standard Publications Limited 1999