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Chasing mobility
in a wireless world
The telecommunications industry across the world is intoxicated
by the idea of third generation mobile telephony. Following
his participation in the 3GSM World Congress last week, co-founder
of iWorld Group and international telecoms consultant, Malcolm
H. Ross, explained his view of the 3G phenomenon to Blanche
Gatt.
Mobile telephony is undeniably a seductive industry to be part
of; the new technologies with their coded acronyms or esoteric
sounding labels like WAP, GPRS and Bluetooth are discussed in
and around the media endlessly, though the products of these
technologies themselves seem to hover imperceptibly somewhere
just out of reach.
Adverts for WAP-enabled mobile phone services appear in all
the major international newspapers and glossies – whether
the magic they promise has really been delivered or not is something
we Maltese are unable to judge for ourselves because our operators
do not offer it at all. GPRS is being announced cautiously,
but beyond our shores the big debate is no longer concerned
with this. The limelight has shifted and 3G is now at centre-stage.
Last week’s 3GSM World Congress in Cannes brought literally
the entire GSM community together to discuss this ever-evolving
industry. The big question on everybody’s mind was, what
is the future of 3G? During this past year operators across
Europe paid mind-boggling sums to acquire 3G licences in preparation
for the availability of this new wonder-technology, but what
is it going to do, how is it going to work and for whom are
questions on many people’s tongues?
Malcolm H. Ross, a telecommunications industry consultant based
in Malta who also works with iWorld Group as Chief of its iDeasTank,
is a chairman of the GSM World Summit, and every year chairs
one of the main sessions of the conference. Last week he led
the Keynote Session entitled “Making the Internet Mobile”,
and with 22,000 delegates at the conference, came away with
some pretty strong impressions of what the temperature on 3G
development is and how it is going to evolve.
“First of all,” he explained, “3G stands for
third generation. At the moment, what we use is second-
generation technology, which allows for voice and SMS and can
also do data at up to 9.6 kilobits per second. GPRS is an interim
step between the 2 and 3G, sometimes referred to as 2.5G, and
enables us to combine some of the 2G channels in order to get
a higher speed of up to 50 kb per second. This is now available
in many countries, and even Malta should soon be getting it.”
“3G promises a data communication system that will, in
theory, give 2 megabits per second – that is 40 times the
speed of GPRS. However, in practice, I think it will be around
300 kb per second, a speed that will fluctuate according to
your movements, so that if you start moving down a street with
your phone or mobile device the speed is unlikely to remain
constant.”
This focus on increasing the speed of data transfer, whether
it is over a mobile phone or through a com-puter is what drives
the industry to develop these new technologies. So far, manufacturers
of bay stations, transmitters, receivers and telephone handsets
have been talking about launching 3G in 2004.
“A significant fact that emerged during the 3GSM World
Congress,” said Malcolm, “is that several manufacturers
announced that their 3G products would not be available until
2007. Alcatel, specifically, said this, and if Alcatel are having
problems, then everybody else is too. It became much clearer
that it is going to be a long time before 3G comes.”
Despite this delay, operators around Europe have already paid
enormous sums for the acquisition of 3G licences. “In fact,”
said Malcolm, “each of the UK operators have spent 10 billion
dollars on licences. I compare the operators’ attitude
to licences to my own attitude to chocolate. If it’s sitting
there, it deserves to be eaten. But once it’s been eaten,
you feel a bit sick and wish you hadn’t eaten quite so
much. Having grabbed those licences, the operators are now beginning
to wish they had not.”
So we are going to have to wait a rather long time before 3G
is available. But with operators and manufacturers spending
vast sums on the development of 3G, isn’t it time to ask
whether the customer needs it or not?
“Well,” replied Malcolm, “already in Malta we
can get ADSL at home, which gives you very high-speed data transmission
of 2 megabits per second. At iWorld Group we have a wireless
LAN (Local Area Network) that gives us 10 megabits to our desktops.
Ours is radio, but you get the same speeds with wires.
“So this is today. By 2005 or 2006 we are going to be used
to having 100mb per second to our desks. This will mean instant
access to Internet with no waiting time at all. Moving pictures
and graphics working instantly. We are going to be used to this
within a few years. Then you take out your much-vaunted 3G system
and find yourself slowed right down – to only 300 kilobits
per second. Whoever is using this kind of data transmission
speed will surely be stationary – you are hardly going
to be downloading enormous
quantities of data as you walk through the countryside.”
“My view,” continued Malcolm, “is that 3G is
a waste of time and money. The question is where are you not
going to have access to a computer? Taking Malta as an example,
you have your mobile phone in your pocket, you are walking through
the countryside and you want to book a table at a restaurant
or get some information about theatre seats. “Your GSM
or GPRS systems are perfectly adequate for providing you with
this kind of data. In these situations you do not want or need
to have access to the sort of services you expect at home or
at work. So for me, 3G is nothing but absolute overkill for
mobile, and nowhere near good enough for work and home, and
I made it clear in Cannes that I am against 3G for these reasons.”
But the idea of having a mobile Internet sounds pretty attractive
to many users, who are excited by the promises operators and
manufacturers are making.
“Well,” said Malcolm, “look at WAP. Users are
used to getting a rich content at their home or office. When
they’re mobile I don’t see why they need that richness
of content. Maybe you need to check your credit card or book
a plane ticket – GPRS is perfectly adequate for that. But
now they’re hyping WAP as the mobile Internet, and this
makes people think they’re going to get the same service
as they do at home or work. Not only do the new technologies
not deliver this, but there is really no need for them to.”
Mobile commerce, or e-mobile (meaning the evolution of the mobile
phone), implies the possibility of doing business via a wireless
device, and Malcolm is deeply involved in the development of
mobile commerce services in his role at iWorld Group, an e-mobile
business builder located in Malta. “People somehow think,”
commented Malcolm, “that in order to do mobile commerce
you need the Internet, and that 3G will give them that Internet
capability. In fact 3G does not give you that internet capability
– what it will offer will be very crude compared to what
people will have on their desktops by the time it appears.
“And talking about mobile commerce as being dependent on
3G is missing the point. If I want a pizza I can pick up my
phone and use voice to order my pizza ai funghi. That’s
mobile commerce. With GPRS you will be able to send long text
messages to communicate, for example, with an airline about
complicated flight arrangements. With GPRS you don’t even
need to dial up – you are always on-line and paying on
volume of data, not duration any longer.”
The industry has nabbed a great deal of attention for 3G with
promises of instant data transmission, Internet super-accessibility
and tempting treats like downloading and watching entire feature-length
movies over the mobile phone. “This is all nonsense,”
Malcolm concluded.
“A movie over the mobile phone! The device is far too small
– can you imagine watching a film on the screen of your
mobile? And besides, the amount of data that would have to be
transmitted is so large, it would bankrupt you. Many people
are excited by the idea of 3G, but the impression I came away
from Cannes with is that they don’t seem to be asking themselves
the question where is the money? And I don’t see where
the money is in 3G. Nobody has been able to convince me there
is any at all. On the other hand, there’s plenty of money
in mobile commerce, which is what we are focusing on and building
at iWorld Group.”
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